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Why go off-grid?
What will it mean to you?
Some calculations
Effect on emissions?
Effect on the grid?
Industry reaction?
Effect on big renewables?

Off-grid, or not?

There are some selfish reasons to leave the electricity grid, and a very good altruistic reason to stay connected.

Recently there has been much speculation about the option of going off-grid; that is, installing (usually) solar PV power and batteries and disconnecting from the electricity supply network, the grid.

This page will not look at the economics. It will look into what the outcome is going to be to you, should you go off-grid and it will look into what is likely to happen to the grid, to the nation's greenhouse gas emissions, and to conventional power generators and to centralised renewables (such as wind, hydro, and big solar) should many people go off-grid.

The page is necessarily speculative. It is airing ideas more than providing facts and it applies to a country such as Australia, where most of the electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels.

Written 2014/11/11, modified 2016/10/02 – ©
Contact: email daveclarkecb@yahoo.com

Why go off-grid?


Some clarification

If you build a house in the country it can be very expensive to connect to the grid: $20k is not unusual. Setting up a stand-alone power supply is then perfectly understandable.

This page is about leaving a power grid to which one is already connected.

People are reducing their power consumption while the cost of maintaining the grid remains the same. So the income received by the power companies is reduced and they increase their charges to compensate. As the price goes up, people reduce their consumption more; the power companies respond by jacking their prices up again. Also as the price of power goes up, and the price of generating and storing electricity at home falls, some people say enough is enough and decide to go off-grid. So consumption from the grid falls even more. It continues... This has been called the death spiral of the power grid.

What will it mean to you, personally?


You can have independence without going off-grid

You can install solar PV (or a wind generator) and batteries and have them as a backup should the grid fail without disconnecting from the grid. It's the best of both worlds; independence and your excess power displaces dirty fossil fuel generated power. Ask a reputable solar power installer about it.

You can, and should, drop the big three electricity suppliers

There are alternatives to the unethical big three: Energy Australia, AGL and Origin. See Why drop the big electricity retailers?
If you go off-grid you will avoid the rising price of electricity and save the connection fee. Apart from the cost of going off-grid – which is high, but coming down all the time – the main disadvantage is that if you do not use exactly as much electricity as you generate (not necessarily at the time you generate it) the remainder will go to waste. You will not be able to sell it and no one else will be able to use it. If it did go into the grid it would displace an equal amount of 'dirty' fossil fuel-generated electricity.

How would you feel about it if a decision you made for selfish reasons adversely affected the nation's greenhouse gas production rates?

An important point to note is that your solar panels will generate about twice as much power in December as they will in June (around latitude 30°, southern Australia), but your power consumption pattern might be quite different. Most people who go off-grid will be relying on solar PV. It is likely that they will want more electricity than they are generating in the winter (short, dull, days) and they will probably generate far more than they need in summer (long, sunny days).


Are steeply angled panels really best for winter?

In my area (Clare, SA) we get little direct sunshine in winter. We have many hours of overcast weather with diffuse light coming from the whole of the sky. In these conditions the panels will be more productive if they are nearly horizontal, so that light from the whole sky can get to them.
To a small extent this can be counteracted by placing the solar panels at a steep angle; this means less electricity is generated in summer and in total for the whole year, but when the winter's sun does shine the panels are facing it and winter generation is maximised. (Or probably maximised – see the box on the right.)


Some calculations

The following is based on figures provided in an article titled "Should I quit the grid?" written by Andrew Reddaway, printed in the magazine ReNew, which is published by the Alternative Technology Association.

Reading 'between the lines' the article suggests that a 4kW solar installation is large enough to generate more power than many households' annual electricity consumption (and I would agree with this; especially for those people who were aware of, and cared about, their energy consumption).

Mr Reddaway goes on to estimate that to go off the grid a 10kW solar system together with about 65kWh of battery storage would be required at a total cost of about $55,000; this apparently does not include a back-up diesel generator which would also be needed. The higher capacity solar system is needed to generate sufficient power during winter, when many days will be cloudy and all will be short.

A solar power system in southern Australia can be expected to have a capacity factor of about 18%. This means that a 4kW system will generate about 6300kWh each year (4 × 0.18 × 24 × 365) and a 10kW system will generate about 15,800kWh each year (10 × 0.18 × 24 × 365).

So, this off-grid home would generate about 15,800kWh of power each year, but consume only about 6300kWh. The difference, 9500kWh of potential generation, would be wasted. If this house, with its annual consumption of 6300kWh and 10kW of solar power stayed on the grid, that excess 9500kWh would be fed into the grid. If the house was to remain on the grid it could displace 9500kWh of fossil-fuel-generated electricity, reduce the nation's emissions by 5-10 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year (see CO2 released per kWh) and produce an income for the householder of $760/year (if the electricity was sold for $0.08/kWh to an energy retailer such as Diamond Energy).


What effect will the move off-grid have on the nation's greenhouse emissions?


An example

I have a shack with 6.7KW of solar PV installed on its roof. In the first year of operation, I exported 10.2 megawatt-hours of electricity into the power grid from my solar power installation. In Australia where most of our grid electricity is generated by burning coal it has been calculated that the generation of each megawatt-hour of electricity results in the release of about one tonne of carbon dioxide. So, by remaining connected to the grid, my solar power has reduced Australia's greenhouse gas production by about ten tonnes in the first year.
Those who go off-grid will no longer be able to feed renewable electricity into the grid; this electricity, had it gone into the grid, would have displaced some fossil-fuel generated electricity. They will quite probably use a fossil-fuel (petrol or diesel) powered generator to give them power when their PV (or wind or hydro) is not providing enough. Both effects will increase the nation's greenhouse emissions compared to what they would have been if these people stayed on-grid.

If you care about climate change and ocean acidification, don't go off-grid.

Greenough River solar farm, WA
Google Earth image
Google Earth image, 2014/06/17
This solar farm feeds clean power into the grid and that displaces fossil fuel electricity.
Your solar PV can do the same with the power that you don't need – so long as you don't go off-grid.

What will it mean to the power grid if most people exit?

The owners of the 'poles and wires' have huge investment in the high voltage transmission lines and in the many more kilometres of medium and low voltage power lines. They have, as businesses generally expect, received an income on their investment. If many people 'drop out of the system' the income inevitably declines.

The bigger users of power will not be able to go off-grid. At present they get their power at lower prices than the rest of us, so even if they were able to generate enough power from solar PV, and store it sufficiently cheaply, for their needs, they could probably not do it at a profit.

How big will the impact of smaller users going off-grid be to those who run the grid? I am not willing to even guess.


How will the power industry react to the off-grid move?

This is a very difficult question. At present they seem to be reacting to declining demand by increasing their charges, but of course this will encourage more people to install solar or leave the grid. As mentioned above, this trend, feeding on itself, has been called the death spiral of the power networks.

Ironically, at the same time, an increased amount of renewable energy on the grid is forcing wholesale power prices down.

The situation is complicated in a state such as South Australia where the power supply system is split between a number of more-or-less independent businesses; there are the power generators, the company that runs the high voltage long distance transmission lines, the company that runs the medium to low voltage distribution lines, and the power retailers. All will be affected by the off-grid move. Maybe each will react in a different way?

What will it mean to most of our renewables – wind farms, big solar, hydro

Snowtown Wind Farm
Snowtown Wind Farm

In 2014 most of the renewable electricity in Australia is coming from hydro and wind power. Only about half as much is coming from solar as from wind farms.

Plainly, if the grid was to fail, for economic or any other reasons, the hydro stations, big solar stations, and wind farms would become stranded assets. In 2015 this seems unlikely to happen any time soon, both because the bigger consumers of power will probably have to continue to rely on the grid and because there are many smaller consumers who have not installed solar power.


Off-grid or not? The implications...

Big renewables: effect on
Emissions: effect on
Grid: effect on
Industry reaction
Why go off-grid?